Donald Trump's Lead More Than Halved With Conservative Pollster

Donald Trump's lead in the November election has been more than halved, according to a conservative pollster.

A new survey by conservative-leaning polling company Rasmussen, conducted between August 18 and 21, showed that Trump was leading Kamala Harris by 3 points among 1,893 likely voters, on 49 percent to her 46 percent. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.

That is less than half of the 7-point lead he had over Harris in July, when Rasmussen's poll, conducted between July 22 and 24, put him on 50 percent of the vote to Harris' 43 percent.

Meanwhile, in the space of a week, Trump's lead has decreased by one point, according to the latest poll. A poll conducted between August 11 and 14 put Trump on 49 percent while Harris was on 45 percent.

Newsweek has contacted the Trump campaign for comment via email.

The latest poll may come as a surprise to Trump, who often posts Rasmussen Reports polls, which AllSides media bias rating shows as "lean right," to his Truth Social account which demonstrate his lead over Harris.

But while Trump's overall lead has decreased from 4 points a week ago, his support among independents has grown by 2 points during the same period. In the latest poll, Trump secured 51 percent of the independent vote, compared to 40 percent for Harris. Just last week, Trump held a 9-point advantage over Harris among unaffiliated voters.

"Is Trump getting a DNC Convention bounce?" Rasmussen asked in a post to X.

However, the latest poll showed that Harris has cut into Trump's 2-point lead among women from last week, with the vice president now leading the former president by 2 points, on 48 percent to his 46 percent. The majority of polls show Harris leading among women, who have historically overwhelmingly voted Democrat.

Since Harris entered the race, polls have shown that she has overtaken Trump's previous lead nationally and in six of the seven swing states, according to FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which shows that Harris has consistently been leading Trump since July 26. Since then, only four national polls have put Trump in the lead.

Overall, Harris now has a 3.6-point lead over Trump nationally—her largest polling average over Trump yet, according to FiveThirtyEight.

However, her position in the polls could change if independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy drops out of the race, per reports.

Throughout the election cycle, state and national polls have shown that when third party candidates are included, Kennedy Jr. takes more votes from Trump than Harris.

For example, a Fox News survey of 1,034 Pennsylvania voters conducted between July 22 and 24, showed that 10 percent of Trump's two-way supporters chose someone else when third party candidates were included, while only 7 percent of Harris supporters selected a different candidate.

Meanwhile, some pollsters have predicted that the lead Harris is seeing in the polls right now may not be permanent.

In a July memo, Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted that there would be a "short term" bump in polls for Harris in the coming weeks as her entrance into the race was expected to re-energize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a "Harris Honeymoon."

Mark Mellman, the lead pollster for then-Senator John Kerry, added that Harris' lead is not "unreal" or "unnatural," but it is "not necessarily permanent."

"I can certainly imagine a situation where both candidates' favorabilities decline a little bit," he told Politico.

Start your unlimited Newsweek trial